Market Data

Chasing
Yesterday's Wave

Broker analysts reviewing the monthly Market Reports have been comparing NABOR@ data from 2019 to data reported in 2024- pointing to the fact that 2019 was the last year when our housing market activity was "normal" (pre-pandemic). They pointed out, "If we compare year-to-date [2024] market results to 2019, sales are down 16%. For July, we are down 29% compared to July 2019." "We borrowed sales from the future during the pandemic." The mad rush to relocate to Southwest Florida during the pandemic set a wave in motion based on the temporary increase in demand. Naturally, in response, prices began to increase as inventory vanished; down to 1,042 homes in inventory in December 2021. But this rush was short lived, and many sellers have been slow to adapt to a new reality.

Overall inventory has been climbing for the last 28 months. For July, inventory increased 50.5% to 4,352 properties from 2,892 properties in July 2023. There are 6.2 months of inventory available, up 59% from 2.9 in July 2023. Conversely, overall closed sales have been declining since July 2021, or 36 months ago.

"Prices are coming down incrementally, not significantly, but there is indication in the July report that more negotiations are taking place in both the low- and high-end price points of the market," said Brokers. The percent of list price received in July decreased 1.4% to 94.8% from 96.1% in July 2023.

Median closed price during both June and July decreased .8%. In July, the overall median closed price was $590,000 compared to $595,000 in July 2023. For both summer months, reductions in the median closed price of single family homes drove the overall median closed price decrease. Conversely, the median closed price of condominiums increased in June and July.

"If interest rates come down too much, like around 5 to 5.5%, we will likely see a rise in prices," added a Broker. "In my experience, we need to have at least 12 months of inventory before we see prices hold steady during rate drops."

Sellers should be forewared: If you are attempting to time the market because you believe you can get a higher price for your home when more buyers are predicted to be in town during the winter season, you may regret your decision. More inventory will require sellers price homes more competitively and entertain more buyer negotiations.

As a Broker put it, "The specter of declining interest rates cuts both ways. If buyers wait until interest rates drop, prices are likely to increase. Likewise, if a seller waits to list a home during winter season, the added competition may also put downward pressure on the price."